Travel spending research has been a bit of a mixed bag as of late. According to the most recent Traveler Sentiment Index numbers published by Ypartnership, consumer perception of the amount of money available for spending on travel is up (considerably –a 17% increase in April 2010 from April 2009). But having more money to travel doesn’t necessarily mean consumers are ready to take a leap and book their trips. A recent Gallup Poll shows one in four Americans plan to travel less in 2010.
Source: Google Trends
One common factor in both the Gallup Poll and the Traveler Sentiment Index is that consumer perception of the state of the economy and the stability of their own finances strongly correlates with making travel plans. The difference in the two studies seems to be a discrepancy in survey answers relating to consumer confidence—the Traveler Sentiment Index shows consumer confidence increasing, Gallup shows the opposite.
So which is correct? Let’s use search trending as a tie-breaker. After all, an internet search represents what a person actually does, whiletraditional research studies rely on the truthfulness of survey answers for accuracy. Google Trends shows that searches for the keyword phrase “vacation packages” have been have been consistently higher year-to-date over 2009.
Source: Google Trends
Interestingly enough, a Google Trends analysis of keywords that might indicate non-confidence in personal finances also look to be declining (albeit, not as sharply). This would represent an increase in consumer confidence.
So while the research is mixed, one thing seems clear. The sooner the economy recovers, the faster U.S. travel will rebound.
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Interesting analysis, Krista! I would trust Google Trends as actual behavior over questions on intent any day. This is good news for the industry.